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Supported
Core Thinking
Availability Heuristic
Social-cognitive biasDefinition
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easily recalled, often because they are recent, vivid, or emotionally charged.
Why it happens
Our brains use mental shortcuts to assess probability. If something comes to mind quickly — because it was dramatic or recent — we assume it must be common.
Real-life examples
- Fearing plane crashes more than car accidents, even though driving is statistically far more dangerous.
- Overestimating crime rates after watching the news.
- Thinking shark attacks are common after seeing a movie about them.
How to counter it
- Stop and ask: "Am I basing this on a vivid memory or on real data?"
- Look up actual statistics or base rates for the event in question.
- Consider whether recent news or media is inflating your perception.
- Keep a log of actual frequencies to calibrate your intuition over time.
Quick tips
- Look up actual statistics before making risk assessments.
- Be aware that vivid stories are not the same as representative data.
- Ask: 'Am I basing this on evidence or on what comes to mind easily?'
- Diversify your information sources to get a more balanced view.