Illusion of Control

The tendency to believe you have influence over outcomes that are actually determined by chance.

We prefer feeling in control. When we're involved in a process, we overestimate our ability to influence its outcome, even when it's purely random.

• Blowing on dice before rolling them in a board game.
• Choosing your own lottery numbers instead of using quick pick, thinking it improves your odds.
• A trader believing their gut feeling controls market movements.

• Distinguish between situations where skill matters and those governed by chance.
• Ask: 'Do my actions actually change the probability of this outcome?'
• Track results objectively to see if your 'control' actually makes a difference.
• Accept uncertainty and focus your effort where you have real influence.