Moral Luck

We judge people more harshly when bad outcomes follow from risky choices, even when the underlying decision was equally risky in both cases.

Outcomes are vivid and concrete; the decision process that produced them is hidden. Once we know what happened, it colours our evaluation of the choice that led to it. This can make us confuse the quality of luck with the quality of judgement.

• Two equally drunk drivers arrive home safely. The one who narrowly misses a pedestrian is judged far less harshly than the one who hits one — even though their choices were identical.
• A fund manager who invests in a risky stock and wins is praised as bold; one who loses the same bet on a different stock is called reckless.
• A surgeon who tries an unconventional procedure and saves a life is celebrated; one who tries the same thing and loses the patient faces malpractice scrutiny.

• Ask: 'Would I judge this differently if the outcome had been opposite?'
• Evaluate the decision, not the result.
• Remember that luck does not reflect on your character.
• Notice when outcome knowledge colours your judgement of a past choice.