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Core Thinking

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Decision-making principle

Definition

The tendency to continue investing in something because of previously invested resources, even when it's no longer rational to do so.

Why it happens

We hate feeling like our past investments were wasted. Stopping feels like admitting failure, so we keep going to justify what we've already spent.

Real-life examples

  • Finishing a terrible movie because you already paid for the ticket.
  • Staying in a failing relationship because you've been together for years.
  • A company continuing a doomed project because millions were already spent on it.

How to counter it

  1. Ask: "If I were starting fresh today, would I invest in this?"
  2. Set clear exit criteria before beginning any project or investment.
  3. Calculate only the future costs and benefits, ignoring past spending.
  4. Consult someone uninvested in the project for an objective perspective.

Quick tips

  • Ask: 'If I were starting fresh today, would I make this same choice?'
  • Focus on future value, not past investment.
  • Recognize that cutting losses early is a sign of wisdom, not failure.
  • Set pre-defined criteria for when to quit before starting a project.

Sources and further reading