Conjunction Fallacy

The tendency to believe that a combination of specific conditions is more probable than a single general one.

Detailed, specific scenarios feel more plausible because they create a vivid narrative. We confuse a good story with high probability.

• Thinking 'Linda is a bank teller and a feminist' is more likely than 'Linda is a bank teller' after hearing she studied philosophy.
• Believing a specific, detailed prediction over a vague one, even though the specific one is mathematically less likely.
• Expecting a complex chain of events over a simpler but more probable explanation.

• Remember: adding conditions always reduces (or maintains) probability, never increases it.
• Be skeptical of scenarios that are compelling because they're detailed.
• Practice basic probability reasoning.
• Ask: 'Is this less likely simply because it's more specific?'