Gambler's Fallacy

The belief that past random events affect the probability of future random events — for example, thinking a coin is 'due' for heads after several tails.

Our pattern-seeking brains expect balance in random sequences. After a streak, we feel the opposite outcome is 'owed,' but independent events have no memory.

• Betting on red at roulette because black has come up five times in a row.
• Thinking you're 'due' for a win after a losing streak in gambling.
• Expecting a boy after having three girls, as if nature keeps a tally.

• Remember: independent random events don't influence each other.
• Don't look for patterns in truly random sequences.
• Understand the difference between independent and dependent probabilities.
• When gambling, accept that each event starts fresh regardless of history.